Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Queensland election: analysis of results and its causes...

Despite the fact that most of the political analysts and observers have considered the result of QLD election last weekend to be historical. But they failed to highlight the other interesting trends and results. They focussed only on the devastating loss of Labor and its failure to win more than 7 seats, so far.

We do not blame these analysts and observers for their focus on the Labor’s bloodbath and landslide loss of losing all seats but 7. They were shocked to wake up to a result where the Labor lost its party status, a rare scenario in Australian politics.

These analysts did not deeply investigate the holistic scenes and the real reasons for this Labor political catastrophe. Consequently, they failed to mention the other big losers and winners, apart from the LNP.

Any deep detailed investigation of what happened last weekend in QLD would definitely note the role of the Federal Labor and its failures on Federal level on the results of QLD election. For weeks, the Labor QLD premier, Anna Bligh, was asking both Gillard and Rudd to end their camps’ infighting on leadership. The indecisive Gillard victory did not put the infighting to rest for good.

Even after the failure of Rudd to unseat Gillard from the prime ministership, Julia is still the worst prime minister of this nation in recent decades. The consecutive opinion polls indicate very clearly that Ms Gillard is one of the most unpopular PM in Australian history. While Labor powerbrokers are very convinced that Gillard should go before the next federal election if it hopes to keep power or even to avoid total wipe-out, but Rudd’s arrogant and unpleasant character in working with his colleagues urged all of them to stick with Gillard, for the moment at least. The current circumstances of unstable minority government, enforced Labor powerbroker to stick with Gillard momentarily. This caused growing anger and dissatisfaction of Labor. The voters did not have opportunity to vend such anger, frustration and dissatisfaction of federal Labor, but on QLD Labor.

What makes things worse for QLD Labor is the impression among voters that the Labor became arrogant does not listen and have no flexibility to accommodate better political pragmatic solution for issues facing Australia. The voters saw the Labor fail to find any solution for any challenges Australia faces, even by retreating from solutions rejected by voters and their representatives.

There is no doubt that the Labor devastating defeat in QLD election was a devastating defeat for Labor at all levels, especially the Federal level. The government which was actually defeated last weekend was the Gillard paralysed and failed government, and not only Ana Bligh’s. This does not mean that Bligh’s government is good government that does not bear any responsibility, but it should take the whole blame and responsibility.

This fact was clear within some comments by Bligh and other Labor officials, when she resigned not only from the parliament but from all responsibilities within the party. She was quoted saying “we failed and we need fresh approach” in a clear indication that the current Labor loss of its direction was the real reason for failure.

The comments by some of previous Labor PMs added to this fact, when Peter Bettie and Paul Keating said very clearly that the Labor had lost its way and abandoned its traditions. And they are right. The Labor continued creeping to the right saw more and more Labor faithful departing for other alternatives.

In addition to the above issues, the political analysts and commentators have ignored many other emerging facts and results. They did not talk much about the Greens big defeat and crumbling voting.

The Greens did not only fail to win any seat in the state, but they failed to keep the votes they attracted in the last election.

In the last federal election conducted August 2010, the Greens secured the support of 260,000 of QLD’ers (11% of QLD voters). In the last weekend’s election, the QLD Greens secured the support of only 145,000 of QLD voters (7% of QLD voters). This means that the Greens faced big defeat by losing more than 40% of the votes they win in 2010 election. In less than 18 months, the Greens lost more than 110,000 voters.

This humiliating result came as confirmation to what we have been claiming for the last decade that the vote for the Greens is no more than a protest vote against Labor and Liberals, and not for Greens platform or policies.

The emerging of Bob Katter Australian party in QLD (won 2 seats for the first election they contest) as strong defender of ordinary people that stands up for poor against unemployment and against transfer of jobs overseas, against deteriorating life-style and against the powerful lobby of homosexuals, did affect greatly the voting for the Greens. This is another evidence of what we have said about the Greens vote as a protest vote against major parties that could be increased or decreased if alternative forces will emerge to defend the marginalised rights. Especially if the Greens achievement list within three decades of political representation is no more than serious talks about same-sex marriage and introducing Carbon Tax, which is highly unpopular among voters.

The result of the last weekend’s QLD election is a real warning message for this government (of 2 partners: Labor & Green). QLD voters sent clear message that we need effective government to find solutions for our problems, otherwise who cares of earthquake....

If the centre-left Labor-Greens government failed to stand up for multiculturalism, human rights (including rights of refugees and asylum seekers) and against Islamophobia. And if this government failed to stop the attacks on our welfare system and the attack on poor and unemployed. And if the government failed to find any solution for accommodation crisis. And if it failed to find any solution for crowded public health and public education. And if the government failed to improve working conditions, employment security and restore workers rights. And if the Labor-Greens government became a true copy of conservative Liberals one, but in a paralysed and subtly racist one, who will shed one tear if it loses power in the next election!!!!

QLD voters sent clear message. And according to all opinion polls conducted in the last few months, it represents the majority of Australians in other states.

Our message to Gillard government “learn from QLD election lessons, before you send Australia into Liberal-National-Katter tsunami”.

In our opinion, the first step for Labor powerbroker is to get rid of the crew that lead them in 2010 to the worst electoral defeat in Australian history. If Labor will not do this, it will not find one Australian sheds one tear when saying good-bye to them in the next election...