Saturday, September 05, 2015

The reality behind sudden Syrian refugees crisis to Europe

After more than 4.5 years of Syrian crisis, sudden sharp surge of Syrian asylum seekers to Europe should raise many questions that need urgent answers.

During the years of the crisis, which at many point witnessed very intense fighting, threats to Damascus which was totally surrounded by terrorists, critical shortage of basic vital materials and repeated attacks on gas supplies that plunged major cities in total darkness for weeks, the asylum seeking to Europe was minimal. Millions of refugees sought temporary asylum in neighbouring countries (mainly Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan). But never went further into Europe.

So why did the numbers of those who are seeking asylum in Europe witness skyrocketing increase in the last few days?

The other question that needs urgent answer is: what is the reason behind the sudden change of heart by conservative (and racist) leaders like Merkel, who vow to accept millions of Syrian refugees in the next few months?

We all remember the chaotic scenes of hundreds of thousands of South Vietnamese people in the lead to the fall of Saigon. The S. Vietnamese collaborators with US occupiers knew very well that they will be prosecuted for treason if they stay.

The same happened to South Lebanese residents who collaborated with Israeli occupiers against their own people. They rushed just before the Israel defeat in 2000 to seek asylum in Israel, and then to other Western countries in fear of retribution, revenge or prosecution for treason.

This is the normal scenes you would see after every failed conspiracy of US against any unfriendly regime/nation.

After years of Syrian bloody crisis, the sticking point for reconciliation is the fate of hardcore terrorists who killed, raped, kidnapped and stole in their areas of control. These terrorists needed to be given a way-out from the corner they will be squeezed to in the next few months.

In the next few months, we expect (according to all indications) that US and its allies (including Australia) will mobilise big military might to start serious campaign against terrorists in Syria (and Iraq) as a first step to wind down the Arab Spring conspiracy/project.

The intensifying of Syrian refugee crisis is needed to achieve many goals:
- It will enable many terrorists to escape Syria, hence reduce the needed efforts to end terrorism there.
- It will give Western powers (US and its allies) the needed face-saving pretext to withdraw their unlimited support for terrorists and big promises to help them to destroy the Syrian government/regime.
- Then it will help to open new chapter with Syrian government, and hence requests to be involved in the massive and lucrative re-building projects.

So what will happen next?

1- The change of rhetoric in ALL Western nations and the beginning of Western countries talk about terrorism in Syria. And the restriction on terrorists’ entry to Syria from Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. All this sent a strong message to terrorists: game is over. Or nearly. So many of them chose to lay down their arms and run away to Turkey (before this also be closed).
2- The agreement with Russia to normalise situation and return to pre 2011 situation will see US and its allies participate in massive bombings of terrorists in Syria (and Iraq) and some targeted assassination operations. This will lead to collapse of terrorist organisations (including ISIS and Jabhat Al Nusra) similar to what happened in Afghanistan in 2001. The major difference from Afghanistan 2001 is that there will be no foreign boots on the ground. The Syrian army will be quick to fill any vacuum.
3- Using issues of refugees and fight against terrorism, US and Western allies will re-establish diplomatic and political relations with Syria.
4- The Syrian extremists/terrorists/rebels will be hosted temporarily (this temporary nature could extend to few decades, as it happened in early 1980s) in different countries. The rest of Syrians who had no blood on their hands will be quick to return to participate in rebuilding their homeland.
5- I expect that the only reason the intensive bombing of terrorists in Syria (and Iraq) did not start yet is the instability of Turkish government. Turkish government is vital for this plan. Turkish government played major role in supporting, arming, training and allowing terrorists to enter Syria. And the Turkish government (even a future Erdogan’s government) will participate enthusiastically in the campaign.
6- Some of the Australian known terrorists fighting currently in Syria will travel to Turkey, get Syrian forged passport and seek asylum in Germany. We should expect that even some of the terrorists who were declared to be dead (like El Omer and Sharrouf) will be living in one of EU countries under Syrian name. But do we really care?
7- We should wait for the plan to be ready to start by mid November.
8- Our hardcore pro-extremists media and politicians should be ready to accept the changes. Bob Carr, Labor party, Greens party and SBS should start exploring way of u-turn on the issue of attacking Syrian government and president. These need to forget about terminologies like “dictator”, “Assad should go”, “barrel bombs”, “Assad forces” ...etc.

My two cents on this debate.